Saving the planet will require interventions to remove carbon dioxide and manage solar radiation

Charles Dobson

Gwynne Dyer, in his 2024 book Intervention Earth, Life-Saving Ideas from the World's Climate Engineers, addresses the escalating climate crisis, highlighting the stark reality that reducing emissions alone is inadequate to prevent catastrophic climate change. He draws on interviews of over 100 climate scientists who emphasize the urgent need to supplement emission reductions.

Fact No. 1: We Are Running Out of Time

The urgency of climate action is underscored by the observation that we are quickly approaching, if not already at, the deadline for preventing catastrophic climate outcomes. The year 2020 was projected as the critical point to begin significantly bending the curve of global emissions downward to meet the Paris Agreement's target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. But it didn't happen. Despite temporary drops in emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic, overall global emissions have continued to increase. In 2023, the amount of CO2 added to the atmosphere was 36.8 billion tons, a new record high, and a 1.1% increase from 2022. The failure to reduce emissions necessitates new interventions to address global warming, as each passing year tightens the window for effective measures to save the planet.

Fact No. 2: Cutting Emissions Is Not Enough

The narrative around the Paris Agreement includes a crucial yet underreported caveat: cutting emissions alone will not achieve the 1.5°C target. There is now a prevailing belief among experts that simply cutting emissions will not be enough to maintain safe temperature levels. Katherine Richardson from the University of Copenhagen says that surpassing a 2°C increase will usher in a chaotic period characterized by even more frequent and severe climate events such as hurricanes and heatwaves. To address these challenges, climate scientists are deeply engaged in discussions about geo-engineering - strategies for deliberate human intervention in the climate system – such as Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) techniques, which aim to extract CO2 from the atmosphere, and Solar Radiation Management (SRM), which seeks to reflect sunlight to cool the planet. Marine Cloud Brightening is an example of SRM. It requires spraying tiny droplets of purified seawater into the air. Scientists in Australia have experimented with Marine Cloud Brightening as part of efforts to save the Great Barrier Reef.

Fact No. 3: Carbon Accumulates

Carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for centuries, creating a long-term accumulation problem. With atmospheric CO2 levels nearing 425 ppm, and an annual increase of 2.4 ppm, we are fast approaching the 450 ppm red line. Scientists estimate that past 450 parts per million of carbon dioxide and a 2°C rise in temperatures, we face severe consequences. The need for action is critical as our trajectory approaches this dangerous threshold. The persistence of CO2 presents a formidable challenge, as it will continue to warm the planet even if emissions are halted today. Even if net-zero emissions are achieved by 2050, accumulated greenhouse gases will maintain the elevated global temperatures. For this reason, achieving a liveable climate will require large-scale carbon removal.

Fact No. 4: Predicting the Climate is Hard

Climate prediction is complicated by the inherent chaos and interconnectedness of the climate system, akin to the "butterfly effect." While models can forecast an 'envelope' of potential weather outcomes, they cannot precisely predict specific future climatic events due to natural variability and chaotic influences. This unpredictability underscores the need to develop safe and effective climate interventions. Because this will take time, we need to move in this direction without delay.

Fact No. 5: Averages Lie

The concept of Average Global Temperature, while useful, does not accurately reflect local climate changes. Temperature variations are often more extreme on land compared to oceans, meaning land areas may experience a greater increase than the global average suggests. This disparity indicates that regional impacts of global warming could be significantly more severe than average figures imply.

Fact No. 6: ‘Runaway’ Is Possible

There is a risk of 'runaway' warming, where tipping points could be crossed, triggering self-reinforcing climate changes. Many scenarios suggest high impacts that could drastically alter the planet and ecosystem viability. The potential for severe, cascading effects further highlights the need for immediate and comprehensive climate intervention.

In summary, the science strongly suggests that unprecedented actions are needed to manage climate change effectively. A comprehensive approach should involve aggressive emissions cuts, carbon dioxide reduction technologies, and solar radiation management. Emission reductions and interventions are necessary to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.

The above is a summary of the introduction to Dyer's book. The rest of Intervention Earth delivers a down-to-earth analysis of where we are with addressing climate change, and details of various intervention schemes with potential costs, effectiveness, scalability, and Dyer's own recommendations.

See also Tackle Climate Change - Edit Wikipedia and What Works for Social Movements and Large Scale Tactics listed in the Table of Contents and Global emissions in graphic form.

 

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